Applied Probability Seminar (2026-27)
This is an informal seminar to give academic staff, visitors, graduate students, etc., based or hosted in Warwick (any department), the opportunity to know more about each other鈥檚 research on topics of probability and its uses in related areas such as mathematical statistics, statistical physics, computer sciences, analysis, etc..
PhD students and postdocs are particularly encouraged to contribute, as well as any external speaker from other departments or universities that you would like to invite. Please contact Paul Chleboun [paul.i.chleboun@warwick.ac.uk] if you wish to give a talk or if you have a name of speaker to suggest.
Given the informal nature of the seminar, last minute changes to the schedule may occur.
The seminar is held on Fridays in MB0.08, 11:00 - 12:00
Term 1
(Week 2) 16 October 2026
Speaker: Daniel Valesin (Warwick, Stats)
Title: Percolation on the stationary distributions of the voter model with stirring
Abstract: The voter model with stirring is a variant of the classical voter model where, in addition to copying neighbouring opinions at rate 1, we allow voters to interchange their opinions with neighbours with rate . When considered in
, it was proved (Astoquillca '24) that this process has a similar set of stationary distributions as the classical voter model. In particular, in dimensions 3 and higher, for each $v$, there is a one-parameter family of stationary measures
, with
is the density of voters with opinion 1. Sampling a configuration
from
, we study
as a site percolation model on
, where the set of occupied sites is the set of voters with opinion 1. We prove that as
, the critical percolation threshold
of this model converges to
, the critical parameter for Bernoulli site percolation on
.
Joint work with Jhon Astoquillca, Franco Severo, and R茅ka Szab贸
(Week 3) 23 October 2026
Pisa-Warwick probability event
(Week 4) 30 October 2026
Speaker: Haokai Xie (Warwick, Stats)
Title: Tempered Langevin diffusions with polynomial-tailed targets: explosions, moment thresholds and ergodicity
Abstract: For tempered Langevin diffusions (TLDs) targeting polynomially tailed measures, the convergence rate is known to change from polynomial to exponential to uniform as the temperature rises through a critical value. We explain this transition by the tails of the marginal laws of the norm of the TLD, up to a second, larger critical temperature beyond which the TLD explodes. As the temperature increases, these tails change from stretched-exponential, through super-polynomial at the first critical temperature, to polynomial, mirroring the transition in the convergence rate. Moreover, this tail analysis gives a complete quantification of the convergence rates throughout the non-explosive regime, in both f-variation and Wasserstein distances.
This is joint work with Aleksandar Mijatovi膰 ().
(Week 5) 6 November 2026
Speaker: Vinayak Niraj (Warwick, Stats)
Title:
Abstract:
(Week 6) 13 November 2026
No Talk.
(Week 7) 20 November 2026
Speaker: Sam Olesker-Taylor ()
Title:
Abstract:
(Week 8) 27 November 2026
Speaker: Francesco Pedrotti (ETH Zurich)
Title:
Abstract:
(Week 9) 4 December 2026
Speaker: Ruibo Kou (Warwick, Maths)
Title:
Abstract:
(Week 10) 11 December 2026
Speaker:
Title:
Abstract: